...about Birth Trends?

Since 1960, a revolution in childbearing has occurred, and this revolution underlies the global slowdown in population growth. Then, women gave birth to more than five children on average.

Today, around the world on average, women give birth to three children fewer than ever before in human history.

In order to stabilize world population while maintaining low death rates, average births will need to total about two children per woman.

There is strong evidence that the average fertility rate in developing countries of 3.4 children would fall at least half way to this critical level if all unintended pregnancies could be avoided.

Average fertility rates are already at or below two in almost all industrialized countries, although even in some of these countries (notably the United States) high proportions of pregnancies are unintended.

In high-fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa, where women often report a preference for large families or "all the children God sends," between 36 and 55 percent of women report that their most recent birth was mistimed or unwanted.

In India, average family size has fallen from 5.3 children per woman in 1970 to 3.6 children per woman in 1992.

In Vietnam, where the average number of children per woman has dropped from almost four in the early 1990s to three today, the average desired by just-married women is 2.3.

Sources [Population Action International and the relevant contributors]

1. Steven W. Sinding, "Getting to Replacement: Bridging the Gap Between Individual Rights and Demographic Goals," paper delivered at the International Planned Parenthood Federation Family Planning Congress in Delhi, India, October 23-25, 1992; Bryant Robey et al., "The Fertility Decline in Developing Countries," Scientific American (December 1993).

2. Alan Guttmacher Institute, Women, Families and the Future: Women and Reproductive Health in Sub-Saharan Africa (New York: Alan Guttmacher Institute, 1994).

3. Leesa and Pravin Visaria, "Indias Population in Transition," Population Bulletin (Washington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau, 1995).

4. Nguyen Van Phai et al., "Fertility and Family Planning in Vietnam: Evidence from the 1994 Inter-censal Demographic Survey," Studies in Family Planning, vol. 27, no. 1. (January-February 1996).